By David Roberts 

Haiti hasn't had much luck in its recent past - certainly not in the last 12 months or so - and it's unlikely the return of "Baby Doc" will change that.

On January 12 last year capital Port-au-Prince was struck by a massive earthquake that virtually destroyed the city, leaving some 250,000 people dead. Since then the Caribbean country has been ravaged by a cholera epidemic that killed over a thousand, and has been plunged into political turmoil following a disputed presidential election, allegedly subject to widespread fraud, and the postponing of the second round of voting.

All this on top of the fact that Haiti is the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere, and the one with probably the weakest institutional framework. So is this an opportune moment for the feared former dictator Jean-Claude Duvalier, or Baby Doc, to return to his homeland after 25 years of exile in France? While Duvalier has claimed, rather implausibly, that he is returning to Haiti to help his people in the light of all their suffering, the move has led to speculation and rumors as to the man's real motive.

An aide has indicated Duvalier wants to run for president - presumably via the ballot box rather than inheriting the post as he did the first time, from his father "Papa Doc" - although Duvalier himself later denied this. Others say his return is all a ploy by President Rene Preval to detract attention from the political chaos, especially after the Organization of American States reportedly recommended that his favorite candidate in the election, Jude Celestin, should not be allowed to stand in the run-off against former first lady Mirlande Manigat because singer Michel Martelly won more non-fraudulent votes than him in the first round.

Yet others have speculated that the former strongman's homecoming paves the way for the man who overthrew him and was later ousted himself, Jean-Bertrand Aristide, to return from exile in South Africa. Aristide has reportedly been asking for a Haitian passport.

Whatever the truth, it would be a mistake of historical magnitude not to use the opportunity to make sure Duvalier pays for his alleged (one wonders in this case if the adjective is really necessary) crimes while in office, along with those of his dreaded secret police the Tonton Macoutes. Duvalier is already being investigated for corruption, theft, and embezzlement of funds, accused of stealing hundreds of millions of dollars, and a case has been filed against him for crimes against humanity, including torture, by four victims of his 15-year repression, including former UN spokesperson Michele Montas.

That's a good start, but the question now is, is the Haitian judiciary and its weak institutions of government capable of taking on such a task. The odds are stacked against it, but if the answer is yes, Baby Doc's return will have at least done something to help the country restore its pride, and contribute to its longer-term political and economic stabilization.

bnamericas

Caribbean Blog International