By Winsome Trudy:

HARDLY anything about Haiti should surprise anybody these days, but the return of Jean-Claude 'Baby Doc' Duvalier blindsided just about everybody on both sides of the Atlantic... well maybe with the exception of the French.

As if the January 12 earthquake wasn't bad enough, coupled with the uncertainties surrounding the general elections, in flies Baby Doc and with him more confusion. There has been much speculation as to his reasons for returning to his homeland where the threat of imprisonment has long loomed in the event of his return. So why now?

His arrival on January 16, the original date for the run-off elections, is seen as having some significance. If his intentions included creating added confusion, then he has already achieved that in spades.

The speculations about his reasons have been many and the influential US administration seems to have been taken off guard along with nearly everybody else. The Government of France, his hosts since his unceremonious ejection from leadership in Haiti in 1986, claim that they too were unaware of his plans and informed Haiti soon after he had boarded the flight home. After all, they noted, he was the holder of a Haitian diplomatic passport and so could not have been prevented in his return quest. Never mind the small point that it had expired.

That he was given a diplomatic passport in 2005 is also a curious point to note. Given the timing, he would have been then facilitated in this by the then interim prime minister, Gérard Latortue, who had seemed sympathetic towards US policies. It is hardly surprising to learn that it was not renewed by subsequent administrations in Haiti.

President Préval's move to make good on his long-standing threat to level corruption charges against the former dictator should he return, may have discouraged any immediate return plans by another former leader, Jean-Bertrand Aristide, who still enjoys strong support on the ground in Haiti. That would certainly have further ignited more confusion and chaos, not to mention the wrath of the power base in North America.

One thing is certain, in the unlikely event that Baby Doc has any notion of being reinstated by his supporters, he is unlikely to be welcomed by Caricom leaders. Recalling the stance of the Caribbean Community when the former dictator was pushed from his perch, we can expect that relations would be icy.

His ejection in February 1986 was actively encouraged by Caribbean governments, notably Jamaica. Indeed, recent comments by former Prime Minister Edward Seaga confirm that the JLP-led administration helped to orchestrate deportation proceedings by giving active encouragement to Duvalier to leave post-haste.

France's role in his return would be something that Caricom would most likely be especially interested in, given that France has feigned ignorance of his plans prior to his boarding the aircraft. Indeed, taking into consideration the fact that his Haitian passport had expired before his departure from France, this begs the question of whether he travelled on a French passport.

While all this speculation prevails, Haiti's woes persist. The rebuilding programme and the effort to curtail the cholera epidemic that has so far claimed nearly 4,000 victims, have clearly been hampered. Besides everything else, the prevailing confusion makes it difficult for any positive action to be undertaken.

As Caricom citizens and close neighbours of Haiti, we need to be particularly concerned with this change of focus. If cholera were to spread to other Caricom nations we could be faced with a pandemic-sized problem, as no Caribbean nation has recent experience with the treatment of cholera or what it would require in terms of health facilities, personnel and communication.

But even as the Haitians have had to grapple with these concerns, including the menacing presence of the former dictator, the US administration has wielded the big stick in demanding that the Préval administration accept the recommendation of the report of the Organisation of American States (OAS) election team of observers and eliminate the president's favoured candidate, Jude Celestine, from the run-off in favour of a popular contender, Michel Martelly, who is warning of renewed protests if he is not on the ballot. In throwing down the gauntlet, the US State Department announced that it revoked the visas of about a dozen Haitian officials.

It would be interesting to know if President Préval and Prime Minister Bellerive are on that list.

The official statement by the State Department is even more ominous. It suggests that the US$1-billion aid pledged to the recovery programme may be on hold. The truth is that this money has been on hold since the day it was pledged at the New York meeting of donors in 2010. So nothing has changed except that before the statement there was some hope of funds being freed up. Now there is an excuse not to release funds any time too soon.

In a situation in which every week brings a new round of problems, the ball is in Préval's court. Just how he plays his hand is anybody's guess at this stage. At this point in time, he does not appear to have too many options. However, the Haitians are a feisty, resilient people and their current leader may well tell the State Department to go to hell. But at what cost?

Based on comments from diplomatic sources, should Preval choose to disregard the OAS's recommendation regarding the run-off candidates his presidency could become illegitimate after February 7, the date his constitutional term ends. And where does that leave Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive?

Under the Haitian Constitution, the president of the country's highest court would become president. Hence Bellerive could remain in place until a new president is inaugurated. Whether he agrees to that condition also remains an open question. But by the time this column is read we should have answers to most of these questions.

Those of us who are waiting on Caricom to issue a statement seem to me to be placing far more weight on Caricom's position than is realistic. Sometimes a strategic silence is the best option.

Correction: Readers should note that OAS representative Albert R Ramdin is Surinamese and not Trinidadian as stated in my column published on Wednesday, January 19. I regret the error.

January 30, 2011

jamaicaobserver