By John Rapley:

While it has stirred excitement and enthusiasm across the Middle East, the Arab Spring has brought a sense of deep foreboding to Israel. The recent storming by protesters of the Israeli Embassy in Cairo, the evacuation of the Jordanian embassy last week ahead of demonstrations there, and a rising war of words with Turkey - a country with which Israel normally has friendly relations - all point to a deepening isolation of the Jewish state.

Later this week, the Palestinian Authority is expected to further heat the pot with its application to the United Nations for recognition as a member. Although the United States will veto the application, nearly 100 states have already indicated they would support Palestinian statehood, further highlighting present Israel's isolation.

Within the Arab world, Israel remains an emotive topic. In their heart of hearts, few Arabs have ever been reconciled to the creation of modern Israel, which they regard as having been built out of the theft of Arab land. Still, politics being the art of the possible, recognising that Israel will exist because so many Jews - and their all-important allies in the US - will fight for its existence, most Arab leaders had resigned themselves to its presence.

Some governments, notably those of Egypt and Jordan, went so far as to decide the Palestinian conflict was not their affair, and made peace with Israel. Other countries maintained officially hostile relations, but quietly accepted the state's existence. It was all easy to do in the days when leaders could ignore the will of their peoples. But that locked Israel into a difficult position: a democratic state, it nonetheless feared democracy in the Middle East.

Fears justifiable?

And its fears have proved justified. The popular revolution sweeping the Middle East has brought long-simmering feelings to the boil. In the sights of many of the protesters and rebels lies Israel. While, officially, Egypt remains committed to its peace deal with Israel, future relations are clearly in doubt. Moreover, the virtual collapse of Egypt's repressive security apparatus in the wake of the popular revolt has made it difficult for the Egyptian authorities to effectively police their border with Israel. There has resulted in a vacuum, in which anti-Israeli militants of all stripes can organise more freely.

Matters have only been compounded by the fact that Israel is currently governed by an unstable coalition with hardcore nationalist elements. Rather than trying to calm tensions, they are calling for Israel to adopt an ever more aggressive posture. Its foreign minister, who is given to fiery rhetoric, responded to recent criticism by the Turkish government by suggesting Israel could fund a Kurdish rebel group in Turkey.

This hardening of the Israeli right is further weakening any influence from Israel's narrowing list of friends. The Obama administration would like peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority to resume, as a precursor to the eventual creation of a Palestinian state. Yet as annoyed as the White House is growing with its ally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, himself no bleeding heart, fears the threat from his even more right-wing coalition partners. He is increasingly ignoring US pressure.

Israel will continue to exist. If it had to, it could defend itself militarily. In the absence of strong and coordinated militaries, Arab popular pressure will not lead to a threat to the state's existence. And while Iran's quest for a nuclear bomb remains an ongoing concern, Iran itself finds its own interests in the region now under threat, as its key ally in Syria feels the pressure of its own street.

Yet a military garrison would be much less desirable as a state, than one at peace with its neighbours, fully welcomed into the community of nations. Israel might come to resemble apartheid-era South Africa, which maintained a thin but artificial veneer of normality behind a curtain of isolation.

And as South Africa's history showed, it is not a very sustainable model for a state.

John Rapley is a research associate at the International Growth Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and rapley.john@gmail.com.

September 19, 2011

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