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Bahamas: Loss provisioning loses more ground to non-accruals
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By VERNON CLEMENT JONES ~ Guardian Business Editor ~ vernon@nasguard.com:

Loan loss provisioning at the country's commercial banks continues to lose ground against growing arrears, says the latest Central Bank report. It's a phenomenon only expected to worsen.

"Banks augmented loan loss provisions by $3.0 million, boosting the ratio of provisions to total arrears by 18 basis points to 23.44 percent," reads the May economic survey. "This corresponded to new loan provisions of $10.0 million, partly offset by a $6.9 million net write-off against loans provisioned for earlier.

"However, as the growth in non-performing loans outpaced the increase in provisions, the ratio of total provisions to non-performing loans fell by 5 basis points to 42.43 percent."

The gap between the cash the banks put aside to cover bad debt and the actual bad debt is expected to widen as the institutions continue to grapple with the growth in delinquent accounts.

Their hesitance to move revenue out of the plus column and into the minus one is also part of the equation, although all are expressing confidence in their respective levels of provisioning.

The quality of their collective book continued to deteriorate in May, however, says the bank report, with the value of private sector loans in payment arrears of at least one month growing by $6.1 million (0.7 percent) to $847.3 million. The associated ratio of arrears to total loans extended by 28 basis points to 13.98 percent.

The number of arrears now beyond the 90-day mark has also started to increase.

"The average age of delinquent loans increased, arrears in the 31-90 days segment waned by $12.0 million (3.1 percent) to $373.3 million," says the Central Bank. "However, non-performing loans — those over 90 days past due and on which banks stopped accruing interest — advanced by $18.2 million (4.0 percent) to $468.2 million."

The discrepancy between provisioning and bad debt has actually grown since the dark days of September and the resulting uptick in layoffs as area hotels and, indeed, businesses across all sectors felt the brunt of the global recession.

While layoffs have slowed, the long-term effects of a depressed income are now being felt by those still on the job. Work weeks little more than one or two shifts have obliterated their ability to keep current with loan payments. That reality suggests the commercial lenders have months and possibly years of growing non-accruals to deal with.

The divide also runs counter to the expectations of one financial advisor. Last January, Ken Kerr of Providence Advisors told Guardian Business the banks would move quickly to close the gap.

"I expect that in the next reporting period we'll see provisioning grow to reflect the growth in arrears and the state of the present and future economy," he said. "If they don't do that then they're very confident about the quality of their loan portfolio or expect a turnaround in the global economy much sooner than everybody else or they could be extremely aggressive in going after borrowers as a way of encouraging growth of their book and because those still able to qualify have more options open to them and the competition to win their business is greater."

That same reduced number of fully-employed Bahamians — with earnings holding against recessionary forces — is also making it tougher for banks to put relatively risk-free loans on their books.

July 8, 2009



July 8, 2009 | 8:09 AM Comments  0 comments

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